The AUD/USD currency pair faced immediate selling pressure during early Asian-Pacific trading today, drifting lower to test the resolve of the bulls. This decline brought price action directly into a critical technical convergence point: the rising 200-hour Moving Average (MA), currently located at 0.66366.
For technical traders, this moving average serves as a vital barometer for the short-term trend. The good news for buyers is that the level held firm. The price successfully rebounded off this dynamic support line, pushing back above the interim 100-hour MA at 0.66519. However, the recovery has been far from smooth. Despite multiple attempts to extend gains, the pair has repeatedly stalled, failing to penetrate a distinct "swing area" established over the last three trading days near 0.66588.
The Current Landscape: A Reluctance to Push Higher
Despite the broader, longer-term bullish trend remaining intact—and the successful defense of the 200-hour MA—market sentiment appears hesitant. The inability to break through immediate overhead resistance suggests that buyer exhaustion may be setting in, or at least that traders are waiting for a stronger catalyst before committing to new highs.
We are currently witnessing a classic technical tug-of-war. The market is squeezed between rising support and a stubborn ceiling, signaling that a volatility breakout could be imminent.
The Bullish Scenario: What Buyers Need to Prove
For the bulls to regain full control, holding the 200-hour MA is necessary but not sufficient. They are currently trapped in a consolidation zone and need to clear specific hurdles to reignite the uptrend:
The Immediate Hurdle: The first step is a decisive break and close above the 0.66588 swing area. This has acted as a "lid" on price action for days.
The Next Target: Clearing that ceiling would shift focus to last week’s high at 0.66848.
The Ultimate Goal: If momentum carries the pair through last week's high, it opens the door for a run toward the major September high at 0.67063.
The Bearish Scenario: What Sellers Are Watching
Sellers are currently banking on the 0.66588 level holding firm. As long as the price stays below this swing area, the bears remain in the game.
The Strategy: Sellers are hoping the repeated failures at resistance will drain bullish momentum.
The Trigger: The key victory for the bears would be a break below the rising 200-hour MA (0.66366) with conviction. Such a move would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and likely trigger a deeper correction.
Watch the Video Analysis
In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the AUD/USD currency pair.
Be aware. Be prepared.
