The AUDUSD is lower on the day, but has also found support buyers against the swing low from Thursday and the pre-US jobs data low in the 0.7142 to 0.7145 area.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price initially moved higher and in the process moved above a swing area between 0.71807 and 0.71868. The high price extended toward the 100 hour moving average or sellers leaned (despite small breaks above).
Eventually upside momentum died in the price started to move lower in the early US session as stocks moved lower and risk off flows started.
What now? The price is been trading above and below the 38.2% retracement of the range since December 3 at 0.71677. On the topside getting above the swing area at 0.71868 and the 100 hour moving average at 0.71951 would be needed to increase the bullish bias.
Conversely, below the 0.7142 – 0.7145 level and the 50% retracement at 0.71342 should increase the bearish bias.
Last week the high prices for the week stalled near the high prices from the prior week putting a nice ceiling on the pair between 0.72718 and 0.72763. Also in play above is the 100 day moving average at 0.7284 (that is moving lower at a slow pace). With the price dipping below the 50% midpoint after the jobs report on Friday, the sellers did have their shot to swing the price the lower half of the range. However that break was short-lived.
So although the there is some control from the sellers standpoint below the 100 hour moving average, they still have more work to do if they are to take more control (or they can lose that control too). As a result, buyers and sellers are engaged in a control battle between the aforementioned levels.
