The AUDUSD broke above it's falling 200 hour MA on Tuesday for the first time since November 2 and continued that run higher in trading yesterday with a move above a swing area between 0.71556 to 0.71723.
The high price yesterday reached 0.71833 - short of the 38.2% of the move down from the October 28 high before modestly correcting lower into the close.
In the early Asian session today, the price continued the 100 down and in the process tested the low level of the aforementioned swing area at 0.71556. Support buyers came in against that level and pushed price back higher with a new high made at 0.71861, but that was still well short of the 38.2% retracement target.
The subsequent move lower has taken the price back below the swing area and the price has been able to stay below the low of that area in the NY session.
What next?
The buyers had their shot above the recent highs/swing area, but stalled and failed to get to the 38.2% retracement as well. That is not good for the upside momentum. The tide has swung more to the downside with the 0.71556 now as close resistance. The price could see a one back down toward the 200 hour moving average at 0.71053.
If the 0.71556 level is rebroken, it would give the buyers a second shot to take the price back above the 0.71723 level with potential toward the 38.2% retracement.
Overall, however, if the buyers can't get to the 38.2% retracement of the trend move lower, they may win some battles but they are still behind on winning the war. Today's price action saw the buyers retreating. They need to start to show more strength if they are to stay in the game.
