WTI crude up 3.6%
WTI crude is up $2.18 to $63.37 after Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed harsh retaliation following the US assassination of military leader and cult hero Qassem Soleimani along with several other Iranian and Iraqi leaders.
The news sent oil above the Saudi refinery attack highs and the May 2019 high of $63.81. The intraday high so far was $64.09 and we've settled about 70-cents below that.
The Saudi attack is instructive here because it shows how quickly geopolitical risk can die down after it spikes. The $2 jump represents that threat of retaliation and subsequent escalation. Because the timing is uncertain, I don't think you can take away the threat as quickly as the Saudi move but barring another bullish headline we may drift back.
Technically, the break above the high is important but a close above $63.38 would be important. That may depend on US inventory data due up later.
