100 day MA was broken on Friday
The USDJPY moved above and close above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since June 2020 on Friday. That moving average currently comes in at 104.385. The pair closed at 104.78 on Friday.
Today the pair has continued to stay above that moving average. The low price today reached 104.602 before bouncing back higher. The price is currently trading at 104.941. The high for the day reached 104.987. The pair is currently in a swing area on the daily chart between 104.936 and 105.084. Get above that level and the 38.2% retracement at 105.358 and the falling 200 day moving average at 105.602 are the next targets. If the buyers are to take more control those are targets that would need to be broken. Otherwise, the bounce off the low seen in December is simply a plain-vanilla corrective move.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price since bottoming on January 26 has seen two trend steps higher. The first moved up to test the 100 day moving average, found sellers but could not reach the 38.2% retracement target at 104.11 (it also stalled in a swing area between 104.156 and 104.20 - see green numbered circles).
The more recent run to the upside also stalled between the 38.2% retracement at 104.641 and the 50% retracement at 104.551 before rotating back to the upside today.
The pair has made a new high today, and is backing off a bit, which can be a concern for the break. For buyers looking for more upside, watch the closing level from last week at 104.78 for bias clues. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and we could see more downside probing.
