USDJPY falls below 200 hour MA/38.2%. Stalling near 50% retracement.
The USDJPY has been trending lower since the start of trading today.
Recall from yesterday, the pair initially tested a upward sloping trend line and 100 hour moving average (blue line) near 105.27 area (see post here). The fall below tilted the bias more to the downside.
That momentum increased after the pair fell below the next target at its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 105.004). Falling below that level and then the 38.2% retracement at 104.83 added to the bearish tilt.
There has been a limit to the decline. The USDJPY pair as seen support buyers against the 50% retracement of the move up from the January 21 low. That level comes in at 104.542. The last 5 hourly bars has seen closes above the line (well we are in the 5th).
Should support continue to hold, traders will look toward the 104.83 level (38.2% retracement and swing level from January 29, February 1, and February 2) as resistance.
A break to new lows would have traders running into the 100 day moving average at 104.393.
The range for the day for the USDJPY is up to 72 pips which is already above its 46 pip 22 day average. So it is a trend day lower.
Drilling to the 5 minutes chart, the pair has traded away from the 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below) for all but about 40 minutes in the early Asian session. That moving average currently comes in at 104.733 and moving lower. It would take a move above that level to give intraday buyers some comfort. Without it, the sellers remain in control and the trend remains intact.
