104.46-50 below is support. 104.796 followed by 104.88-944 is resistance
The USDJPY is trading in an up and down confined range in pre-election trading. The high in the Asian session was matched in the London morning session at 104.796. Above that level is the 50% midpoint of the range since October 19. That level comes in at 104.88. In trading yesterday, the price squeezed above that level to a high at 104.944. Move above is more bullish.
On the downside the pair stalled in a swing area going back to October 21. That area comes in at 104.46 to 104.501. The low today reached 104.472. Near that level is the rising 100 hour MA at 104.549. Move below each is more bearish.
In between the extremes (where we trade of course) is the 200 hour MA and 38.2%. Those levels may be rudders that may guide the intraday flows, but I expect the extremes to control the bias going forward. Move above 104.88-944 is more bullish. Move below 104.46-50 is more bearish. That is the roadmap that "the market" will likely follow today.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, on more weakness, the recent low at 104.018 is a key area. Going back to the end of July, the low price bottomed at 104.18. In September, the price broke below that level (taken the price to the lowest level since March) but found support buyers at 103.995 (call it 104.00). The low from last week at 104.018 found buyers against that area.
On more weakness going forward - and through the election - breaking below the 103.995 to 104.180 would be more bearish. Keep that area in mind going forward.
