200 day MA the next key target at 110.212
The USDJPY is trading between the 100 day MA at 108.76 below, and the 200 day MA above at 110.212. The current price is at 109.88.
On a more hawkish Fed, the 200 day MA will be a key level to eye for traders. Get above and the 110.859 will be targeted. That is the 61.8% of the move down from the November 2017 high and is also the swing low from the same month (see chart above).
In between the 200 day MA and the 100 day MA, sits the 50% retracement of the move down from the same November 2017 swing high. That level comes in at 109.664. Yesterday, the price moved above the bullish/bearish barometer. Today, the low of 109.64, bottomed just a couple pips below that level.
On a more dovish Fed, getting back below that level would open the downside for more corrective action with the 100 day MA at 108.764 a potential target.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the 109.45-53 was a ceiling area last week and into Monday. Yesterday, that area was broken (see yellow area) and then tested. The level held. That will be another area on the downside to eye on a corrective move lower. Get below should open the downside for more momentum. PS the 100 hour MA (blue line) is also in that area now.
SUMMARY: When the price trades between the 100 and 200 day MA, it is a key decision time for the trading bias. It can also give traders a cause for pause while the figure out "what's next".
The FOMC decision, followed by the employment report seems to be enough to give the price the push - one way or the other.
With the price above the 100 day MA and the 50% level, the dollar buyers are making a play before the decision/the data. The price is also above the 100 hour MA and broke a ceiling area on the hourly chart (at 1.0942-53 currently).
The buyers are more in control There is more room to extend, but we will need to see that break of the 200 day MA .
If it can't be broken, buyers can start to take profit and rotate the price lower. Moves below the 109.66 and then the 109.42 -53 area would open the pair for more downside, with a move back to the key 100 day MA a target (at 108.76).
