The "market" is looking for the next shove
The USDJPY moved up to test the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 25 high in trading yesterday. That level comes in at 109.309. The high price yesterday did extend above that level to 109.37, but the move was short lived. The price started to correct. That 50% retracement level remains a key upside target. Be aware.
The price did rally into the Asian opening today but the high fell short of the 50% level once again, the price rotated lower again.
Looking at the price action over the last 2 days, the moves are up and down. The market is looking for the next shove at some point.
On the moves lower and higher over the last two days, the price has moved above and below its 100 day moving average (blue overlay line). That moving average currently comes in at 108.946. That's about where we are trading right now.
The low for today, did fall below a channel (bull flag?) trend line, but only briefly. That lower trend line currently comes in at 108.64. Keep that level in mind on weakness. If it holds, the buyers remain in control (and hopes for a break and run higher remains in play).
On the topside, the higher channel trend line comes in at 109.16 currently (and moving lower). A break above with momentum should see a retest of the 50% retracement at 109.309. Get above that level - and stay above that level - would be a more bullish play and we should see further upside momentum toward 109.657, and then the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March 24 high at 109.875.
For now, however, the pair is mired in an up and down trading range with the 100 day MA between the extremes as traders await the next shove.
