Stalls at recent swing high/swing level from mid February
Remember the 114.86 level? That was the high swing price going back to Mid February 2016. At the beginning of December, the price stalled against the level (high reached 114.82) and rotated lower. See the daily chart below.
ON Friday, the pair raced above that level and in today's trade, the price extended to another upside target. That came in at the swing low area from August 2015 and January 2016 (between 116.09 and 115.96). The high price today reached 116.11. It was primed for an extension higher but the sellers showed up. So good technical hold at the highs today.
What now?
The rotation lower off the highs today, has taken the price negative for the day, BUT the fall stalled right at that 114.82-86 area. The low today stalled at 114.84.
So we now sit above the 114.82-86 level BUT well off the high target at 115.96 to 116.09. Since we are down on the day, traders might be more cautious on a move back higher.
Are there any interim levels?
Looking at the 5- minute chart below, the pair is currently near the earlier swing lows on the day at 115.15 and 115.19 (see green circles in the chart below). The high price just stalled between those levels. Another upside resistance target might be the 115.598 level which is the 61.8% of the move down from the 2015 high (see daily chart). We moved above that level today, but later fell back below. Moreover, that level became a resistance level after the break back lower (see red circles in the chart below).
So what I see is the potential for a high being in place. The good news is the levels are pretty transparent in case that is not the case.
O the downside, the 114.82-86 is the next key support to get and stay below. ON a break of the 114.44-54 (highs from March 2016) will be targetted. The 100 hour MA is currently at 114.46 too.
ON the topside now, the 115.15-19 area is close resistance followed by 115.59. We are currently staying below the closest level at the 115.15-19 - keeping sellers more in control.
A battle is on but the current battle lines have been drawn. The sellers seem to trying to keep control but they have work to do.