Swing lows and highs also in the tested area
The USDCHF has retraced some of the earlier gains since the jobs report. The high price today stalled a pip from the high from last Friday's trade near 0.91754. The rotation to the downside has now taken the price down to test a cluster of support including the:
- 200 day moving average at 0.9153
- 200 hour moving average at 0.91448
- A swing level from lows and highs (see red numbered circles) at 0.91496 area.
The low price just reached 0.91483 and is seeing a bounce.
That cluster of support is key in the short term technically. If the level holds, more upside probing could be expected. Move below, and a rotation back toward the 100 hour moving average at 0.91245 cannot be ruled out.
Taking a broader look at the hourly chart above, the USDCHF has trended to the downside since September 30. The high on the day reached 0.9367. The cycle low was on Tuesday at 0.9081.
The pair is working on its second up day in a row (the price closed marginally higher yesterday at 0.91239 - right below the 100 hour MA).
The price today waffled above and below the 100 hour moving average during most of the Asian session, but started to pick up steam in the European session, and was able to extend above the 200 hour and 200 day moving averages in the process.
Going forward if those moving averages can hold support, the 0.9175 level high will have traders looking toward the 100 day moving average near 0.9188. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 30 high comes in at 0.91904. Getting above - and staying above those levels - would increase the bullish bias. Getting above the 38.2% retracement target is the minimum retracement if the buyers are serious about moving higher after finding a bottom. Absent that, and the correction of the recent trend move lower is it's simply a modest rebound into resistance.
