Stalls at an old swing area and falls back below the 50% midpoint retracement
The USDCHF as searched higher over the last seven trading days of which six have been to the upside. The move took the price higher by nearly 350 pips, cracking above a longer-term trendline on the daily chart below, the 200 day moving average (greenline currently at 0.91265), and the 38.2% retracement (at 0.9193).
The momentum stretched above the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 2020 high at 0.93281, but seem to of found resistance against an old swing low area from June and July 2020 between 0.93606 and 0.93753. The high price today reach 0.93748 and reversed lower.
The price has since moved back below the 50% midpoint level at 0.93281. The next target on the daily chart comes in against the September 2020 high price at 0.92956 (i.e. around 0.9300).
Drilling to the hourly chart, the pair is currently testing a trendline connecting Lowe's from February 26 and March 3 at 0.9308. Move below will target the 30.2% retracement of the move up from the March 3 low (the last trend move higher) and the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line) which are both around the 0.9285 level. That level and the 50% retracement of the same move higher and the low from Friday's trade would be the next key target at 0.92573.
Close risk now is the swing away from Friday's trade and 0.93185. The last for hourly bars have been able to stay below that level. If the intraday momentum can keep a lid against that area, the sellers have more confidence to further probing the downside.
