10 of 12 days lower in the USDCHF
The USDCHF peaked most recently on February 20. That high price reached 0.98479. Yesterday the low price reached 0.91747. That move took 12 days (10 of the 12 days were lower), and in doing so, the price move down 673 pips or -6.83%. That's a big move. The low price yesterday did take out the low price from 2018 at 0.91866, but the price could only extend to 0.91747 before rebounding higher. The inability to extend lower (it was the lowest level since June 2015) give the buyers some hope. Today the price has extended even higher with a high of 0.93729 reached.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price action yesterday moved below a trend line (see red numbered circles) and waffled near the lows. Today, the price has extended back above that trend line, but momentum could not be sustained. The high price today stalled ahead of its 50% retracement of the move down from the March 4 high at 0.93855. Above that is the falling 100 hour moving average at 0.9400 (and moving lower). The old trend line is not being effective indicative of a "market" that is unsure of the next move in the pair.
Ultimately - from a technical perspective - if the price has indeed bottomed and a corrective move higher is forthcoming, getting above the 50% at 0.9385 that 100 hour moving average currently at 0.9400 will be eyed. The price of the USDCHF is not traded above its 100 hour moving average since February 21. That's a while ago.
On the downside for today, dip buyers could lean against the close level from yesterday. That level is down about the 0.9250 level. So we are not all that close to that risk defining level. However, with 10 the last 12 days to the downside, a new up day would be a step in the bullish direction.
Any closer clues/risk levels from the 5 minute chart?
Looking at the 5 minutes chart below, the last dip bottomed near the 50% retracement at 0.93008. That is of course also close to the natural support level from that "big figure" level.. The 200 bar moving average (green bar in the chart below) also has held support in recent trading. If the price moves below those levels, we should see a further probe to the downside (we should see more downside probing). Stay above and intraday momentum higher may continue.
Needless to say, the sharp fall in the USDCHF was triggered by lower interest rates in the US AND a flight into "relative safety of the CHF". Today with the US stocks trading up over 3%, the pressure on the pair has abated.
