Oil coming back down
The crude oil inventory draw down today, led to a spike in the price of crude to $46.53. The price moved above the 100 hour MA at $46.22 (see post here). As a result, the USDCAD moved back toward the low and guess what happened? The price of crude oil started to move back lower. When it fell back below the 100 hour MA at $46.22, the buyers turned to sellers and the price of oil tumbled back lower. That fall has taken the price back down to the lower 200 hour MA at $45.20 (green line in the chart below). That too is a level to eye and stay above. It also can be used to define and limit risk. Buyer are starting to buy a little against the level (with stops on a break).
And how has that impacted the USDCAD?
Well the price of the pair was falling (CAD higher) after the price of oil rose, and then the USDCAD rose after the price of oil fell (CAD lower).
Technically, the recent rise has taken the price up to its key 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and like the price of crude, is stalling a bit against the technical level. A move above would be more bullish technically, but right now, traders are leaning against the 100 hour MA, on the first look.
Tomorrow in Canada, they will release their employment data. The expectation is for an increase of 10K vs 54.5K increase last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.6%. Of course the US employment report will also be released. The range for the week with 1.3013 as the high and 1.2911 is very narrow. The 100 hour sits near the middle of that range at the 1.2963 area.