The run to new year lows on December 31 went nowhere
The USDCAD is continueing its 2+ day consolidation into the weekend. The price action today has been up and down, with the low taking out the low from yesterday - but not the Tuesday (Dec 31) low at 1.29508 - and the high staying below swing highs from Tuesday and yesterday (between 1.30047 and 1.30087).
The consolidation has allowed for the 100 hour moving average to start to catch up to the price. Usually, "the market" looks to make up it's mind on whether it wants to correct further to the upside, OR continue the trend move lower. In the favor of more downside is that the move of the low has been rather tame. So buyers are having a tough time taking control. Nevertheless, the price action will tell the story.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the low from December 31 did extend to the lowest level since October 17, 2018. The move lower took out the low from July at 1.30151 in the process. Since then, the price high has not been able to extend above that level (the high reached 1.30075). It will take a move above that old low to give the bulls more upside confidence as well.
As a result with the 1.30047-087 area as resistance off the hourly, and the 1.3015 level as resistance on the daily, getting above each would give the buyers some comfort in the new trading week. Absent that, and the bears still remain fully in control.
