Numbers near expectations for CPI, but Real avg weekly earnings are higher
The initial move was for the dollar to fall a bit after the CPI data came in near expectations (core was 0.1% lower on the MoM and YoY), but that fall has seen a retracement (vs the JPY at least - the EURUSD is more supported though) as the numbers are digested. The 10 year yield is down about 1 BP (down a BP) as is the shorter 2 year yield (down a BP or so).
The USDJPY on my chart moved down toward the 200 hour MA at the 103.77 level (the low reached 103.78 - green line in the chart above). The corrective high took it back to 103.98. It is back down toward the middle/low of that trading range currently. The 100 hour MA at the 103.98 will be eyed by buyers as a level to get and stay above, while the 200 hour MA at 103.77 is a level on the downside to confirm more bearishness for the pair technically.
The EURUSD has been more supported as it moved from 1.0993 to 1.1013. It is trading around the 1.1005 level currently. For this pair, the high price after the number took the price just above the 100 hour MA at 1.1010. Most of the London session was above that MA but the falling EURGBP helped to push the pair back below the MA line (it was the first break above since October 10th). If the momentum is going to reverse back higher, that MA will need to be broken (and stay broken). Lower targets are 1.0984 and then down near the low for the move at 1.0963. The 1.0950 is the low from July and the 1.0909 is the swing low from June. On the topside, a move above the 100 hour MA at 1.1010 will look toward 1.1044 (the swing low from August).
The headline numbers were as expected to 0.1 weaker (for core numbers) but the Average real earnings gain of 0.8% was much better than the 0.4% from last month.