The move back above the 200 day MA today went no where
The USDJPY had an up and down day yesterday that saw the price reach a low in the first hour of trading at 107.35, but then rallied up toward the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 26 high (an intermediate high on the way down). The price moved above the 200 day MA (green line at 108.376) but could not sustain upside momentum. The high reached 108.578.
The price fell back toward the low of the day, but fell short of that earlier low too. Late in the NY session yesterday, and into the early Asian session, while the stocks screamed higher, the USDJPY did moved back higher, got above the 200 day MA, but once again fell short of the 38.2% level. The price rotated back lower.
We are seeing ups and downs in the European session near the middle of the 107.35 to 108.578 range. A channel line has no impact. The "market" is happy where it is and waiting for the next shove.
What is of interest is that the big run higher in the stocks did not lead to a huge run higher in the USDJPY on "risk on" flows. So there seems to be some upside apprehension. The 200 day MA - although broken on three separate times - has a dampening effect on the upside momentum. It will take a move above, with momentum (say get above the 38.2%) and then work on the falling 100 hour MA at 108.908 (and moving lower). Until then however, the nod goes to selling rallies.
