200 day moving average at 109.01 today.
The USDJPY ran higher yesterday, cracking above its 200 day moving average at the 109.01 level (current level). THe high price stalled just ahead of the underside of a broken trend line and the spike high after last week's FOMC decision at 109.26 and 109.28 respectively. The high price reached 109.237 and backed off.
The "back off" has taken the price back below its 200 day moving average at 109.01. The last 7-8 hours has seen the price trade mostly below that moving average level (although there has been some trading above - the high reached 109.052 over the last 7-8 hours).
The price is currently trading at 108.959. The sellers are trying to keep a lid on the pair. The low for the day, however, is only down at 108.90. So the price is not running either way.
If the lid can be kept on the pair, the 108.90 low is the next target. On a break below, traders will be targeting the 108.719 to 108.784 area (see blue numbered circles). There have been a lot of swing levels at that area going back to October 18.
Move below that area, and the pair will start to run into the 200 hour moving average at 108.65, the 50% retracement of the move up from last week's low at 108.558, and the 100 hour moving average at 108.507.
Right now, the chart pattern looks like a move down from last week's high has been retraced, and the bears are more in control now (ups and downs). Stay below the 200 day moving average (up to 109.05) and the downside technical levels can be retested near the middle of the up and down trading range. From there, it would be up to the market if it want to tilt to the lower part of the range.
If the 109.00-05 area is broken above, the buyers/longs can breathe a little better and a move toward 109.35 (61.8% of the 2019 trading range) will be eyed.
