Tests 61.8% retracement
The USDJPY is moving away from its 200 day MA after breaking above earlier on the CFIUS/trade headlines (thought to be less harsh?). That MA comes in at 110.189. The low for the day reached 109.69
Durable goods data - with the revisions included - were not that bad (stronger revisions/weaker data this month). Goods trade deficit was lower than expectations with imports and exports both rising. Ok data.
The pair is up testing the 61.8% of the move down from the June 15 high. That comes in at 110.31. The high off the trade headlines reached 110.338. The last two hourly bars has reached 110.31 and 110.314 - right at the 61.8% level. The price needs to get and stay above that level.
The 200 day MA will be a key barometer for traders at 110.189 area (as will the 50% retracement at 110.129).
Yesterday the price stalled at the 200 day MA. Back on June 22, the price stalled at the 200 day MA. In the Asian session, the price stalled at the 200 day MA. It is a key level (see green numbered circles).
The price did break above on the headlines this morning, and moved below and tested the 50% level before moving back higher in the recent price action.
The combination of the 200 day MA and the 50% makes that area a risk level for longs. Stay above is more bullish. Move back below, and the longs could start to get more worried and give up on the bullish momentum.
For now, the bulls are in control.
OPTIONs. There is 1.3B expiring at 110.00.