USDCHF builds more off the lows with the move today
If you look at the daily chart of the USDCHF, the pair has been running lower since peaking most recently at the end of November. The price moved from 1.0027 to a low of 0.96457 at the end of December. The low extended below the August low of 0.9659 and traded to the lowest level since September 2018.
Since bottoming on December 31, the price action has been more up and down. Today the low price reached 0.9664 after the Iranian bombing. Although trading at to the lowest level for the week, the pair could not extend below the August 2019 low price of 0.9659, nor approach the December 31 low at 0.96457. That's good news for buyers. Also good news is with the price at 0.9733, the price is above swing lows from 2019 at 0.96457, 0.9659, 0.9693 and 0.9715. If the price can stay above those levels now, there is room for a further corrective move higher (and who knows from there).
The price action back to the upside today did have a intermediate correction that could have threatened the bias.
Looking at the hourly chart below, him the initial high price for the day did stall ahead of the high price from yesterday at the 0.97287. The correction to the downside did move back below the 200 hour moving average (green line) and 100 hour moving average (blue line). However the last 6 or so hours have seen a more trend like move higher with each of those MAs being rebroken. The buyers are back in control above those MA levels.
We are now moving into the close with the price trading around the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 24 high. That level comes in at 0.97382. In the new day if the price can extend above that level that would be more bullish for the pair with the 61.8% retracement at 0.97600 as the next upside target.
Risk now for longs is at the 200 hour moving average at 0.9715. That is also near swing levels off the daily chart . Stay above the 0.9715 level and the bulls remain in control.
Closer risk for traders would be around the 0.9728 level where the swing highs from yesterday and earlier today are found. If that level can hold, it can be a springboard for further upside momentum.
