A move below the 200 hour MA with momentum would increase the bearish bias
The USDCHF moved lower today after the pair sniffed the 100 hour levels in the Asian session, and found willing sellers (see blue line in the chart below). The stall ahead of that moving average gave traders a go-ahead to push lower.
The run to the downside has been able to move below the 50% retracement of the last leg higher from the March 2 below at 0.92552, and even take some quick "looks" below the 200 hour MA (green line) currently at 0.9251.
However, there has not been a whole lot of momentum on the breaks. Traders are taking a breather.
The good news for the shorts is that the upside is very limited as well. So sellers are trying to keep control. The question is, can they get the needed push below the 200 hour MA?
On a break, the next key support target would the the 1.8% at 0.92271, followed by the swing area between 0.9193 and 0.92004 (natural support at 0.9200 as well).
NOTE: The corrective moves of the USDCHF is just from the "most recent swing low". As such, it is the minimum correction of what has been a much bigger move higher in the pair.
Looking at the daily chart below, the February swing low was down at 0.88708. The price moved higher 11 of 15 days to the high in March at 0.93748. That high stalled near a swing area going back to July 2020.
The 38.2% of THAT move up from the Feb low comes in at 0.91823. So if there is a break lower, there is room to roam to get to that target on the longer term chart.
