Can there be a break today?
The Canada GDP came in much worse than expected (and to pour salt in wounds) seems to have been leaked as well (what a mess).
The run higher took the price to a high at 1.32405. That got within sniffing distance of the pairs 100 day MA at 1.32503.
Recall on Tuesday, there was another run toward the 100 day MA. On that run, the high reached 1.3234 while the 100 day MA was at 1.3244. So both tests, stalled about 10 pips from the key MA.
Does today's run crack above the MA?
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, we have corrected modestly off the highs. That correction moved to a low of 1.3209. The 38.2% comes in at 1.3198. My feeling is that as long at the 1.3198 level holds, the buyers remain in control. A move below would hurt the sentiment. Until then the buyers are in control.
A break above the 100 day MA would open the door for further upside. Looking at the daily chart, the break would look toward the 38.2% of the move down from the end of December high at 1.32956 (see chart below).
PS crude oil is moving lower (down $-0.81 at $56.40). That is helping the USDCAD sentiment too (lower CAD)..