Here is why...
The USDCAD moved down from the June double top (and top area - see yellow area in the chart below).
The move lower moved back down toward the swing low from March at 1.3124 and also below the broken 61.8% at 1.3131.
The last two days saw a low at 1.31115 yesterday, and 1.31145 today. That should have solicited more selling. It could not. The price action today (see hourly chart below), traded 7 hours around the 1.3124 level but could not crack. Buyers? Maybe....
Staying on the hourly, that price action may be showing a reluctance to sell (and staying above it would be more bullish in the new trading day), but getting and staying above the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.31555) would be more convincing for the dip buyers. The price moved below that MA line on June 28th and that helped to start the trend move to the old swing level on the daily. If the move lower is over for now, getting back above that MA line will be eyed
Is the USDCAD trying to base? Yes. What do you have to watch to support that idea? Stay above 1.3124 and get and stay above the 100 hour MA at 1.31555. Can the base fail? Yes indeed, but if the price can get and stay above 1.3155, there is potential for a move toward the 200 hour MA at 1.3222 area.