Fall below the lower trend line stalled and the rally was on.
The NZDUSD fell below a lower trend line on the hourly chart yesterday. That is an increase of the downside momentum but that break ultimately failed and today, the price moved higher.
The run-up took the price toward the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.67548. The high today reached 0.67512. You would expect the MA to put up a fight on the test (we were increasing the downside momentum yesterday afterall), but a move above could solicit more short covering with 0.6776 (38.2% of the last move down) as the next target. The topside trend line comes in at 0.6800. The 200 hour MA is at 0.6816 (and moving lower).
For now though, the buyers took advantage of the failed break lower, but the trend sellers showed up and so far stalled the attempt to take back too much control. Look for the sellers to continue to try to stall the rallies at the MA, but to give way if there is a break higher.
The Global Dairy Trade auction came in with it's lowest auction results this year at -5% but the NZDUSD price is hanging in at 0.6739 (little changed). The data should be more bearish for the NZDUSD, but not seeing much at the moment. Buyers and sellers are battling.