Technical levels are defined
Recall that last week, the EURUSD was mired in an 80 pip up and down trading range. The low reached 1.18135. The high reached 1.1893.
Yesterday, that range was extended on the topside with the move up to 1.19053 and then extended on the bottom side on the tumbled lower with a move down to 1.17992 (call it an even 1.1800. By the close, the price had retraced nearly to the 50% retracement at 1.18522 of the range yesterday and traded above and below the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). It also stayed just below a swing area between 1.18487 1.18515 (see red numbered circles).
Today, the price chopped modestly higher, before basing against its 200 hour moving average (green line) and racing above the 50%, the aforementioned swing area (red numbered circles), and the 100 hour MA (blue line). The tilt of the bias was once again shifted more to the upside.
That tilt and momentum higher took the price all the way up to the highs from last week between 1.1889 and 1.1893 (see blue numbered circles). Sellers leaned this time, and the price move back to the downside but held support at the 100 hour MA (blue line).
The holding of resistance against the swing area and the holding support against the 100 hour moving average have defined a technical range. The current price trades around 1.18704 as buyers and sellers now battle it out.
Ultimately, the price will need to make a concerted break outside the 80 pip range from last week. Yesterday it tried twice - once to the upside and once to the downside. Each failed and ultimately saw snap back moves (one down and one back up). The price being above the 100 hour MA, above the 200 hour MA and above the middle swing area, gives the technical nod to the buyers, but as we have seen that advantage can easily shift. So watch close support at the 100 hour MA. Hold and hope for more upside. Break and then look for the confirmation of the shift back through the middle swing area and the 200 hour MA to put the sellers back in the drivers seat.
