Pair trades above and below the 100 hour MA and waiting for the next shove.
The EURUSD is trading higher on the day but the price is contained. On the downside, the corrective low in the London session got close to a lower trendline which currently comes in at 1.1287 (and moving higher). On the topside an upward trend line cuts across at 1.13517 (and moving lower). In between sits the 100 hour moving average at 1.13283. The price action since late yesterday has seen the price move above and below the rising 100 hour moving average as traders wait for the next shove. The "market" is unsure after the run higher since the start of the recent run higher started on February 21.
Should the price break higher, traders will target the 1.1400 level and then 1.1411. That level was the swing high price going back to June 2019 (see daily chart below). On the downside, the swing high from August 2019 came in at 1.1248, and the swing high from December 31, 2019 came in at 1.12387. That area will be key support on the downside on further downside momentum. The rising 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the February 21 low comes in at 1.12205. That is also a key support target level.
The EURUSD rallied into and after the Fed easing last week. The pair peaked on Monday and corrected yesterday - allowing the 100 hour MA to catch up to the price. The market has to decide if the EURUSD can continue the rally as the region heads toward a recession, or does the US yield contraction continue to pressure the USD. The technicals will help show the way.
