Trades below the 2016 and 2017 lows but can't go very far
The EURCHF has been toying with jumping off the edge of the cliff.
Looking at the weekly chart above, the swing lows from 2016 and 2017 bottomed in the 1.0617 to 1.0634 area. The 2017 low's not been revisited in total last week and again this week. In fact the low from last week fell below the 2016/2017 lows to 1.06067, but bounced. The low today 1.06109 also move below those 2016/2017 lows to 1.06109, but it too is bouncing.
Traders tried to jump off the edge of the cliff, but miraculously have each time been saved. We currently trade at 1.06203.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the price on Thursday and Friday of last week was able to get above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) at 1.0629. However the moves stalled ahead of the 38.2% retracement line at 1.06527. In fact a nice ceiling was created at 1.0650. The 100 hour MA would need to be broken to solicit more buying, followed by the 1.0650.
The fall in the pair has been helped by downright bearish sentiment in the EURUSD. Growth is slowing and traders become increasingly concerned about prospects. Also of help is the flight to safety into the CHF from the coronavirus. However, the USDCHF is trading higher of late. So the impact of the flight to safety argument into the CHF is a bit diluted as a reason.
Watch the cliff. So far, the jumpers have been saved.
