The 100 day MA below is the support.
The USDJPY fell sharply in trading yesterday but consolidated up above and below the 50% retracement of the move up from the January 21 low. That level comes in at 104.542. That midpoint was also just above the 100 day moving average at 104.391.
In trading today, the price dipped below the 50% level and took a run toward the 100 day moving average only to find dip buyers waiting for the opportunity. The price rebounded back higher and ran into resistance against the broken 38.2% retracement at 104.83 and a swing area going back to January 29 (see red numbered circles).
The price stayed below that level and has now moved back to the downside after the weaker than expected CPI data out of the US.
The return point for the repair?
The 50% retracement level so far (the price is bouncing off that level). On more weakness the 100 day moving average will come back into play. I would expect traders to "wash, rinse and repeat". That is lean against the level with stops on a break below.
The top and bottom levels have been established (with the 50% in between). The sellers have been the most recent dominant traders (the price is down 3 consecutive days), the price is back below the moving averages. However, the 100 day MA bounce and the stall near the 50% is indicative of support buying as well.
So we consolidate until the next shove.
