July low at 0.9857 eyed
The dollar has moved lower and is now the weakest currency of the majors. What is the strongest?
The CHF has moved to the top of the table (along with the NZD), with the USDCHF down -0.61% as a currency pair (the CHF is stronger by 0.61% in the snapshot).
Looking at the USDCHF daily chart below, helping to shove the pair lower, has been a breaking of a lower channel trend line at 0.9901. That is now a risk level for shorts.
The low has extended to 0.98803. The low for July reached 0.9857. The range for the month is only 210 pips. That comes after a 204 pip range in June. To give you an idea, there has not been a trading range for a month below 204 pips since August 2014. That is non-trending.
Now, there is today and tomorrow to get something more respectable for the month (i.e. to extend the month's trading range). Again, a move below the 0.9857 would do that. The pair trades at 0.9885 currently.
Drilling to the 4-hour chart below, the price has moved below the lows from last week at 0.9900 area and below a trend line at 0.9905.
The 0.9855-57 were lows from June 25th and July 9th (low for the month). Below that the 100 day MA comes in at 0.98229.
So,
- The break of the trend line on the daily is more bearish.
- The break of the trend line (at 0.9905) and the lows from last week is more bearish
- The range for the month is light at 210 pips
- The last two months are both showing narrow trading ranges
There is reason to expect more downside on the breaks with the 0.9855-57 lows and the 100 day MA at 0.98229, the next key targets for the pair.
