The pair is shifting bias swings in the process
For the day, the AUDUSD has had a lot to talk about technically. Some is more bullish. Some is more bearish. There are failures of some key breaks. There is some holding of levels too. The buyers and sellers are having one heck of a battle.
The first move of the day took the price to the lowest level since December 11 (see hourly chart above). In the process, the price action took the pair below its 100 day moving average (1st time since December 10), and a lower trendline (see red numbered circles). The low price extended to 0.68266.
Breaking both the 100 day moving average and the lower trend line should have had traders thinking lower levels. However momentum faded. The break below the lower trend line failed and eventually the break below the 100 day moving average also failed.
The run to the upside took the price right up to a downward sloping trendline at 0.6855. That level found sellers that stalled the rally not once, but twice (see green numbered circles 3 and 4).
The subsequent fall has returned back to the 100 day moving average where we currently trade around.
What now?
A move back below the 100 day moving average at 0.68379 should solicit more downside momentum with the low for the day at 0.68266 and the lower downward sloping trendline still targets.
If the 100 day moving average can hold support, the buyers will still need to extend above the topside trend line. Also of importance is the 0.6843-495 area (old floor from early in January - see blue numbered circles).
As I type, the 100 day moving average is being broken (traded to 0.6835). Sellers are making another play in what has been a rock em, sock em type of day for the pair. Can the sellers keep the momentum going? Or will they get bloody again from another failed break.
