Another client note in the past few hours from National Australia Bank
Also courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com. Sign up here for your free trial.
Say NAB:
The corrective bounce of recent weeks extended aggressively last week to challenge the integrity of the downtrend.
While the base of the broken multi-month triangle/consolidation was overcome intra-week, Friday's negative reversal confirmed a material rejection of key resistance and confirmed the the MT downtrend remains in place.
Note that AUDUSD has traded in broad sideways consolidation since mid-2015, highlighting a stark reduction in the pace of the downtrend.
As such we see risk of a decline towards the bottom of the 2015/2016 range, however we are reluctant to be aggressively bearish beyond a multi-week timeframe without seeing renewed negative triggers at a MT level.
