50 and 100 day MAs in play. Holding on the first test.
In an earlier post, I outlined how the USDMXN has pushed down to the key 200 day MA level (click here for that post). The price has stalled at the key MA level and stalled. The market is leaning but not ready to break through - it is too early.
How about the US stock market? This is also another barometer with Clinton thought to be good for stocks (at least on the initial reaction) and Trump a negative (at least initially).
Where do we stand? The index is up testing it's key technical level. That comes at the 2146.50 area. Why is that important? The 50 and the 100 day MAs come in at that level. A move above will be more bullish. Staying below, says the market is taking a breather after moving up about 0.70%.
ON a move above, traders will look toward topside trend line at the 2155.34. Above that and the index starts to tick away at the highs that have kept a lid on the index in August and September.
So far, like the USDMXN, we are seeing the market stall. The high just ticked to 2146.87 and has backed off to 2145 area. That makes sense to me.
Where do we go if Trump momentum builds?
Do you see the low from Thursday and Friday? That line that the price bounced off is the 200 day MA (it is at 2085.66). A Trump win and that line will likely be broken in a hurry. The 38.2% at 2047.23 and the 50% at 2001.96 can not be ruled out.
The stock market has not liked the idea of President Trump. The uncertainties are simply too great even if some think it will be pro-business. The market does not like such uncertainty, so traders will sell, and ask questions later.
For a post on what the S&P might do given a 5% move down on a Trump victory (posted over the weekend) CLICK HERE