$45.83 has held three times
WTI crude oil fell by the most in three months yesterday and the decline continued early today.
However, for the third time support at $45.83 held. After touching a low of $45.92, WTI has climbed back to $47.27.
The bounce leaves a clear triple bottom. On the topside, there is modest downtrend from the June 9 high near $52.
I think a great breakout trade is shaping up.
I like the downside because the H2 seasonal trend in crude is dismal. So far this year, crude has almost perfectly followed the seasonal playbook.
That said, the trade isn't to make a bet on what's going to happen, it's to wait for a break and go with it. In general, the rule of thumb is to bet on a triple-bottom breaking but it doesn't always work.