Oil down 10% in a week
Last Friday's news that Iran and Iraq were steadfast in demanding exclusions from OPEC production quotas led to a breakdown in oil that has finally found a base.
At least a temporary one.
Support at the late-September low of $44.19 held today. The low so far was $44.37 and front-month WTI has bounced slightly to $44.77.
Ultimately, the lack of any kind of dip buying on the way shows how quickly the market can sour on oil. No one truly believes in OPEC. It's just a matter of trying to stay out of the way of the publicity stunts and hollow talk that case send crude on a $4 squeeze higher.
For now the risks shift towards the US election. If $44.19 breaks before the weekend, I think it will quickly get down near the Sept low of $42.55 but more likely is 2-3 days of consolidation above $44.00 as positions are squared.