Resistance at swing area and old topside trend line
The NZDUSD moved above the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below) for the 1st time since February 26 earlier in the day. HOwever, that break ran into the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 25 high, and could not go any further.
The subsequent correction to the downside saw the price break back below the 200 hour moving average during a single hourly bar. The break quickly reversed, however, and the price started to re-base against its 200 hour moving average. The price has moved slowly to the upside over the last 4-5 trading hours.
The pair is currently retesting the old topside channel trendline AND a swing area dating back as far as February 26. That area comes between 0.72224 and 0.72274. Get above that area and then the 38.2% retracement at 0.72382, and the buyers have some open road ahead with the swing highs at 0.72721 (see green numbered circles) and the 50% retracement at 0.72382, as the next targets.
The 1st key is getting above 0.72274 level.
If it can not, we are likely to see a retest of the 200 hour moving average below at 0.7203. A break below the 2nd time, is likely to not get the quick bounce seen earlier today, but see more selling on the inability to get and stay above the MA and failure to extend above the 38.2% retracement during the correction run over the last 3 or so trading days.
