With the weak close for the Australian dollar on Friday, this via NAB pertinent
Technical analysts there were awaiting:
- Weekly close below 0.7502/09 will confirm a renewed MT downtrend bias.
Commentary:
Medium Term Price Drivers
- Since breaking the two- to three-year uptrend in April price has broken below the H2 2017 low at 0.7502 in four separate weeks but failed to close a week below 0.7502. A close this week below 0.7502 will confirm the break of the MT uptrend and renew a MT downtrend bias.
- Last week's retest of broken 2-3 year uptrend at 0.7665/85 and high of 0.7677 confirmed that the MT uptrend is broken.
- Weekly close below 0.7502/09 targets a multi-week to multi-month decline, initially towards 0.7320/30.
Medium Term Momentum Drivers
- Weekly RSI has broken its multi-year uptrend confirming a renewed MT downtrend bias.
Long Term Price Drivers
- January produced a failed new multi-year high and subsequent bearish reversal, setting up an impulsive decline and break of the two- to three-year uptrend. • Next major support where the May 2017 low coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/2018 uptrend at 0.7320/30.
- A monthly close below 0.7320/30 will imply a full retracement of the 2016/2018 uptrend to 0.6800/50. Long Term Momentum Drivers
- LT momentum failed to make new highs with price in January confirming the failing LT uptrend.
- Monthly MACD recently produced its first LT downtrend confirmation since early 2016.
