Why it's a dangerous game to pick the top in cable

Cable up or flat in 8 consecutive days.

Buying cable in mid-April has been as good of a trade as there as been in 2015. After a nasty false breakout to the downside, cable is up more than 1200 pips from the lows -- an average of 50 pips per day.

There was one 300-pip correction that hit just before the UK election.

Naturally, after so many days of gains, the trade is a bit long-in-the-tooth. The daily RSI is up to 74, if you're into that kind of thing.

To me, this looks like a time for a break. The gains have been decelerating and cable is clinging to just a 14 pip gain on the day after climbing by more than 70. The pair also reached 1.5800, which was a target circled on many charts.

GBPUSD daily

What do to?

Don't sell cable. I think it might dip from here, you might too but picking tops and bottoms is death. If there's an itch you need to scratch, sell a mini lot.

A run like this rarely ends with a total reversal. If it moves sideways for a few days or some good news finally helps the US dollar, that's a reason to sell. But picking a top just because a market is overbought isn't.

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