Time to pick those trading hot spots over the NFP release
USDJPY
UP
- 120.53 is the 200 H4 ma. Too close to the price for my liking on anything other than a perfect match on every detail
- 120.65/70 is an old resistance pal of ours and it's right on the top of the triangle at 120.7
- 120.84 is the 200 dma
- 121.00 will have natural resistance and orders. It looks far enough that a good, but not spectacular release might pull up there
- 121.30 is another strong level that will take some work and is probably strong enough to contain a good, all round report
- 121.40/50 will see some traffic ahead of the end Aug highs at 119.60/65
- 121.79 is the 61.8 fib of the 125.27 drop and the 55 dma sits at 121.90
- They'll have to be paying out gold bars as wages and have NFP at 300k+ for 122.00 to get a good look I feel
Down
- 55 H4 ma at 120.08, again, too close right now
- 119.92 is the Feb 2015 support line
- 119.60/65 has been another decent support point when moves get stretched and you can add 119.45/55 to the mix as extensions of moves that break 60. The lower line of the triangle sits there too
- 119.20 held twice late in Sep, so worth noting
- 119.00 should be considered for the same reasons as 121.00 above
- 118.80/85 is another old support area and the 55 wma
- Dec 2014 support is at 118.50/55 and probably the outer reaches of a big miss
USDJPY H4 chart
If the dollar is being bid up on expectations of a good number, and thus a Fed hike then the greater risk to the price is a bad number. As I mentioned in my preview, we need to focus on the headline first then wages the split second after as they will be the main driver of a sustained direction. It's a trade you might need to be very nimble for or otherwise let the dust settle and trade the wider ranges
Best of luck to you all
