Looking for a kick above $1300 or below $1275
Gold has moved higher since November, partly as a result of a flight to safety. Let's face it, from Brexit, to US/China, to general trade wars, to monetary policy, to government shut downs, to now unrest in Venezuela...alll help contribute to uncertainty and fear. Moreover, they all remain unsolved.
Another influence is the dollar has been moving lower. That tends to help boost the gold.
Having said that, the run higher into January has found a equilibrium area. Since December 28th, the price of gold has been confined to roughly a $1275 to $1300 trading range. The low is really around $1276 and the high has reached $1298.60, but call it $25 bucks.
Looking at daily chart above, the $1287.55 is the 61.8% of the move of the move down from the 2018 high to the 2018 low. The last 5 days has been able to stay below that level. Maybe bears are trying to give a shove lower, but the $1276 remains a floor.
You can see that on the hourly chart below. On January 21, and again today, the lows stalled right at that floor. So although lower and despite a tilt to the downside below the $1287 level (61.8%), there remains some apprehension.
Keeping on the hourly chart below, the price moved back below the 200 hour MA last Friday (green line) and has remained below that MA (currently at $1286.78). That MA is a barometer for bulls and bears. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control. The 100 hour MA (blue line) has seen the price move above and below it over the last two days. Once again, it is indicative of a market that is just not sure.
Nevertheless, I give the bias tilt to the downside below the 200 hour MA. Stay below that MA line though.
SUMMARY: Gold has seen a move higher into the new year, but January has seen consolidation up and down roughly between $1275 and $1300. At some point we will get a break and run. The last 4-5 days has seen a tilt to the downside on a move below the 61.8% and the 200 hour MA. Stay below those levels is more bearish. A move below the $1275 opens the downside for more probing.
