3rd test of the 100 hour MA in the last 3 days
Gold moved briefly above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) on Thursday but failed. On Friday the price tested the moving average 2nd time and moved lower. Traders are currently testing the level again at 1208.21 area (it is getting lower and lower). and has made a break above that level (high 1210.21 currently). Traders will want to see the hourly bar close above and stay above this MA level now in order to confirm the bullish move. Stay above and the buyers remain in control. Close below and this move is just another corrective move higher that failed.
If the price can stay above the 100 hour moving average, that is step one in a bullish progression. Step 2 is to extend above downward sloping trend line resistance , which comes in at the 1212.70 area. Above that level is the 100 day moving average, which currently comes in at 1216.75. The 200 hour MA (green line) comes in at 1218.30. The price has not traded above the 200 hour moving average since February 3. Needless to say the sledding will be tough for the buyers even if the price does manage a close above the 100 hour MA. Nevertheless, it would be a step in the bullish direction.
With the bearish trend in gold, the topside resistance levels, including the 100 hour moving average and trend line, are easier hurdles to get above (they are both moving lower). However, until that time that the price can move above and stay above, the sellers remain control.
Despite the lower lows and lower highs, the bottom trend line continues to hold support on dips. Today's low ( see green circle 4) bounced off of that lower trend line. As a result, traders do have their levels to lean against on the bottom and top, where risk can be defined and limited.
