Until that trend continues, the sellers are still in control
looking at the 5 minutes chart of the trend move lower in the GBPUSD, shows the corrective move have been minimal. Those corrective moves are off the legs lower which makes the trend move even stronger.
Think about it....if the price can't get above the 38.2 to 50% retracement of a trend leg lower on the 5 minutes chart, the countertrend traders are certainly not winning. The sellers remain in control.
Looking at the 5 minutes chart above, the yellow areas represent the 38.2 to 50% retracements of the most recent legs lower. Apart from the 1st corrective move earlier in the day, the corrections have been limited to the yellow areas. Sellers remained in control.
The current run lower corrected up to the 1.3130 level. That was between the 38.2% retracement at 1.31272 and the 50% retracement at 1.3136. If the buyers are to take the minimum of control, they need to prove that they could extend above the 1.3136 level and stay above that level. Failure to do that, and they are not winning. The sellers continue to win.
On a move above, it would give the buyers something to hang a hat on, but there would be additional work to be done. Nevertheless it muddies the water for the trend lower, and could lead to further corrective momentum with the falling 100 bar moving average at 1.3166 (blue line) a target to get and stay above.
Until those hurdles can be broken, the dip buyers will remain fearful of the continuation of the trend, and dip buyers may like the idea of buying low (there is support at 1.30998) but there would still be some doubt - until that 1.3136 level is broken.
