Anxiety from Brexit/virus
The AUD while USD had a wild, volatile down and up session yesterday with the pair gapping modestly lower from the Friday close, moving down about 146 pips and retracing around 138 pips of that move down.
Today, the pair moved back lower and in the process moved back below the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA at 0.75825 and 0.75603 respectively. The current price trades around 0.7550. Stay below the moving averages keeps the sellers more in control.
There is an element of liquidity issues and/or bias uncertainty. The price trade above and below its 200 hour moving average rather freely today. The fall below the 38.2% was quickly retraced. When liquidity conditions are less, there tends to be more randomness, with up and down choppy volatility. Traders need to be aware of those types of liquidity conditions between now and the end of the trading year.
Having said that, the training bias is still more to the downside with the price below the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Moving back below the 38.2% retracement at 0.7537 should increase the bearish bias.
Note the range for the day is a 62 pips which is on par with the average trading range of 63 pips over the last 22 days. So there is an element of normality from that perspective.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the price last week moved up toward a swing area between 0.7642 and 0.7676 (the lower end of that range - see yellow area in the chart below) and found sellers. Yesterday, the price moved down to test another cluster of swing support levels and found buyers. Today the pair trades between each of those areas. The bullish news for the pair is the price remains near highs going back to 2018.
