50% also near MA level
The GBPUSD moved - with more momentum - below it's 100 day MA. That is negative news for the bulls in the pair. I would expect sellers to use that MA now as a risk defining level.
Having said that, the pair is finding some support against the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above at 1.2470) and the 50% of the move up from the Jan 20 swing low (at 1.2466). The low for the day has reached 1.24671 so far).
The fall back below the 100 day MA trumps the support against the 200 hour and 50% retracement for me. The break above that MA was the 1st look above since June 24th Brexit day. If we close below that MA line today, the market would have only managed 3 closes above that key MA line. That is not a lot of bullish love for the pair.
As a result, the buyers have to prove they can do more. That "more" will only give me a warm fuzzy feeling on a move back above the 100 day MA.
So support may hold for now, but it will only be a matter of time before the fall back below the 100 day MA, exerts it's influence.
Next targets:
- 1.2417 - swing high from Jan 17/18. Swing low from Jan 24. Key level. 1.2410 is the 38.2% of the move up from the Jan 16 low
- 1.2358 - 200 bar MA on 4-hour
- 1.2333 - 100 bar MA o 4-hour.