Move below the 200 day MA and 50% retracement failed.
The GBPCAD is the biggest mover today. The pair is up 0.61%. Even though it is the strongest pair, it is not racing. What is stalling the pair?
Looking at the daily chart, the pair traded below the 50% retracement of the move up from the January low at 1.67939 over the last two trading days. It also traded below the 200 day MA at 1.6752. The lows reached 1.6721 and 1.6728 respectively. That should have turned the bias more bearish. Instead we have seen a rebound back higher in trading today. That is somewhat bullish.
Where did the price go?
The move higher took the price up to a high price of 1.6899. The 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) is at 1.69082. We currently trade at 1.6865.
So the pair failed below the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement BUT also failed to take out the 100 day MA. The market traders are in a fight at those wider daily moving averages.
Drilling down to the hourly chart what is it showing?
The last 7 trading days has been consolidating from 1.6995 to 1.6721. That has left a series of topside resistance levels See chart below:
- 200 hour MA at 1.6894
- 100 day MA at 1.6908.
- Trend line at highs from June 16 and June 19 at 1.6963
- Highs from June 15 at 1.6995.
So although we are higher, the pair ran into some resistance above including the 200 hour MA and the 100 day MA.
Looking further at the hourly chart, the price cecline from the top, did stall on the downside above the 100 hour MA at 1.6851.
So on the hourly chart, there is another battle . This one is between the 100 hour MA at 1.6851 (on the downside) and the 200 hour MA at 1.6893 (on the upside).
It is all coming together for this pair. The move higher today may be a precursor for more upside technically, but there is some work to do. What we can say is that real close support comes in at the 100 hour MA at 1.6851 (risk for buyers). Stay above and the traders can start to chip away at the other levels above.