Greece, distrust of moves and moving averages are the themes
The EURUSD story remains largely unchanged from yesterday. That story is full of Greece anxiety and uncertainty (Greece is expected to ask for a loan extension tomorrow as they continue to kick the can down the road). . It is full of distrusting moves to extremes that find sellers and buyers. It is full of action around the moving average levels.
Today's specifics had the price highs limited and a fall below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). That fall took the price to the next target against the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) where the price decline has stalled.
As we stand right now, the pair is content between the 100 hour MA above and the 200 hour moving average below.. Those levels come in at 1.13927 and 1.13602, respectively.
Traders who stuck the toe in water against the 200 hour level from the long side, want to see the price move above the 100 hour moving average and stay above that level.
Traders who sold on the break of the 100 hour MA want to see the price move below the 200 hour moving average and stay below that level.
Traders who want to play that range, can play that range by buying low and selling high until there is a break with momentum.
Can I speak with certainty on any directional play? Not really. The market continues to be short the EUR according to CFTC data last week. So there is a conviction for a lower EURUSD, but we know too short can lead to sharp correction at any time.
Looking at the daily chart, we do know that despite the threat of that sharp short covering rally, the price is staying near the lows (see daily chart).. The high correction remains below the 1.1639 level which is the low from 2005 (a key swing point back then).
There remains bond buying and implications from that in March. Inflation remains low. Economic activity may be bottoming but troubles still remain. Greece is draining. In the US, the strong employment reports are not showing the gains expected from other data. As a result, the song remains the same with traders wondering what will break the logjam.
