The pair moves below the 200 hour MA and 50%. Will it be sustained?
Of course I do not know if the selling can be sustained. What I do know is that the market has been in a non-trending up-and-down choppy environment. So chances are there will be a level where the sellers turn into buyers again. However, where that occurs is dependent on the technicals. Currently, the EURUSD has made a break below the 200 hour MA and is next working on getting below the 50% retracement at 1.13593. With Greece still up in the air, that sort of makes sense from a fundamental standpoint as well.
When the market consolidates, nearly every 10 or 15 pips becomes another hurdle. For the euro, now that the 200 hour MA has been broken, this now becomes close resistance for traders. That comes in at 1.1365. I would probably give it to 1.1372 as risk now. The 1.1372 level was a low swing price going back to 2003. I would not tolerate much above that level though from the short side. If it moves above that level, a march back to the 100 hour MA would likely be the next step.
Keeping the bears in control, will next target::
- 1.1354 - Low for the day
- 1.1344 - Trend line connecting most recent lows
- 1.1338 - 61.8% retracement
- 1.1333 - low from yesterday
- 1.13187 - low for the trading week
Below those levels and the market will be looking toward the lows from last week's trading with 1.1300, 1.1277 and 1.1269 the next targets.
Of course the momentum can die at any target step along the way, as breaks become failures. Such is the dynamics of a non-trending trading range. For the time being, the bears remain in control until the 200 hour MA and the 1.1372 level is taken back.
