Been moving lower, but not since the double bottom on Monday
The USDMXN is getting boost after Politico reports the US is mulling a full backing out of NAFTA and renegotiation. Already yesterday, the Trump administration went after Canada on lumber, and dairy products. Clearly the President thinks NAFTA is a "disaster", and it remains on his immediate radar.
Technically, the pair has been trending lower since Jan 19th. The fall took the price to a low of 18.45179. On Monday, the low tested that level, but could only get to 18.4660 before starting a rebound. A double bottom was formed. The price moved above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue line). That is somewhat bullish (or at least on it's way).
Yesterday, the price tested the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and held. Bullish.
Today, prior to the last surge higher, the price moved above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (currently at 18.8915). Admittedly the price traded above and below, but we started to move away.
We currently trade at 19.21. The next target comes in at the swing high from March 22 at 19.2350 level. Above that the 1.4258 is the swing low from March 7th.
Just putting things into perspective, the move lower has been a pretty steady trend. If the double bottom is the bottom. If the 200 day MA at 19.6155 is a target and the 38.2% of the move down from the Jan high comes in at 19.81848 level. There is room to roam.
PS looking at the weekly chart, the price fall from the peak broke below trend line support during the seek of March 19th. The price has moved back above the trend line around the 19.1000 area. That is now a real close support area. Volatile action.
