Closed below the 100 day MA on Friday. First time since Oct 7th. Will the sellers reemerge.
The USDJPY is trading nearer the highs for the trading day and is up on the day (from last weeks trading).
Last week, the price first tested the 100 day MA after the FOMC meeting. ON Friday, there was a break below and the pair closed below the MA line for the first time since October 7th, 2016. That technical move should keep the sellers more in control IF the "market" really likes the downside. The 100 day MA is above at 113.14. The high today extended to 112.89 - still comfortably below that MA line.
Looking at the hourly chart above the price has rebounded about 38.2% of the move down from the high corrective price on FOMC Wednesday. That retracement comes in at 112.871. The high just reached 112.89. That is still a controlled correction. What happens next will tell more a story.
Drilling to the 5- minute chart, the pair has broken above the 100 and 200 bar MAs. Those MA (blue and green lines) are moving higher now. The price is moving down to test them. If the sellers are in charge, the price should move back below those MAs. The pair would be back negative on the day (closed at 112.66 and the 200 bar MA is at 112.65). That area is intraday support. If the price cannot break below, the intraday buyers are remaining more in control and we could see a test of the 113.00 and potentially the 100 day MA at 113.13 at some point.
