100 hour MA, 100 day MA
The post FOMC volatility has sent the USDJPY up to to the retest the 100 hour MA at the 119.102 level. The 100 day MA sits above that level at the 119.228 today.
The price is currently hanging around the converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The midpoint of the day is where the two MA are found.
The price should move away from this area. IT is simply too neutral. If down, a move below the 118.75 will still be a key level to get and stay below. If it is higher we go, the 100 hour and 100 day MA will confirm a more bullish attititude.
WHile the dollar got hammered against the EUR and GBP today, the USDJPY stayed in the 67 pip trading range for most of the day. Prior to the FOMC there was a move lower helped by holding resistance against the 200 bar MA (see prior post). The action after the FOMC decision, snuffed that break out. Now we are back to neutral.
The BOJ meets on Thursday. No change is expected. They seem to be content to keep thing as is. As a result, the catalyst might have to come from the US. We get more March data tomorrow with personal income and personal spending. They also kept weekly initial claims in Chicago PMI data. The Chicago PMI is expected to rebound to 50.00 from 46.3 last month. This was as high as 59.4 in January.
