News and stronger stocks reverses the bias
The USDJPY had a rough week last week as Trump made gains and the stock market sold off each and every day (9 in a row to be exact).
Today, those trends have been reversed as weekend news favored Clinton. Stocks are expected to open sharply higher with S&P futures up 29 points and the Nasdaq futures up about 71.5 points. Polls seem to still be close but may not include the FBI news from the weekend. Let's face it, we are down to the vote. The focus will continue to be on the swings states - FL, NC, OH, PA - they are in the east coast and therefore the first where the polls will close.
Technically, the pair fell below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart last week (see chart above) and did a pretty good job of keeping a ceiling against the level. Today the Asian Pacific session was volatile as the market digested the weekend news, the gap effect and lower liquidity. Over the last 11 hours, the price has been staying above both the 200 hour MA and that 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 104.187 and 104.08 respectively. That is a floor/lower boundary for traders today (stay above is more bullish).
Where can it go (it might not be until tomorrow)?
Looking at the daily chart, the 105.23 level is the 50% of the move down from the end of May high. Above that is a nice trend line at the 105.44 area. Get above that, and the 200 day MA at 106.698 becomes the next target. The price has not close above the 200 day MA since December 17, 2015
